Project
Completed
2021

GLAMOR II: Global Influenza Mortality Research, 2013-2021

Duration: 2013 - continuously

Background
Seasonal influenza results in an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 deaths every year. While this number is often quoted, it is based on an extrapolation of estimates that were done for the US. The GLaMOR II project will produce seasonal mortality estimates of influenza based on the methodology used by the GLaMOR I project which calculated global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic.

Aim
The overall research question is: what are valid estimates for mortality due to seasonal influenza for the world, and for the WHO regions, paying special attention to tropical and subtropical regions?

Additional ressearch questions
Additionally, we will assess the following sub-research questions:
- Which age-groups have the highest seasonal influenza mortality burden?
- Which influenza virus types/subtypes have the highest seasonal influenza mortality burden?
- How does the seasonal influenza mortality burden vary by mortality outcome (e.g. respiratory mortality versus all-cause mortality)?

Study design
The study design is based on the approach used for the GLaMOR I project (2011-2012, published in the PlosMedicine). We use a two-stage approach to make the regional and global estimates:
- In Stage 1, we apply a multivariate linear regression model to estimate respiratory mortality in each collaborating country (roughly 30 countries).
- In Stage II, we use the results from Stage I, plus ten country indicators, in a multiple imputation model to estimate the mortality burden in all world countries.

Results
Reports for WHO and a scientific publications.
Funding
World Health Organization (WHO)
Project partners
National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA; Sage Analytica, Bethesda, Maryland, USA; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, USA