Seasonal Influenza Mortality Burden Estimates: the GLaMOR II project

Seasonal influenza results in an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 deaths every year. While this number is often quoted, it is based on an extrapolation of estimates that were done for the US. The GLaMOR II project will produce seasonal mortality estimates of influenza based on the methodology used by the GLaMOR I project which calculated global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic.

The overall research question is: what are valid estimates for mortality due to seasonal influenza for the world, and for the WHO regions, paying special attention to tropical and subtropical regions?

Additionally, we will assess the following sub-research questions:
- Which age-groups have the highest seasonal influenza mortality burden?
- Which influenza virus types/subtypes have the highest seasonal influenza mortality burden?
- How does the seasonal influenza mortality burden vary by mortality outcome (e.g. respiratory mortality versus all-cause mortality)?

The study design is based on the approach used for the GLaMOR I project (published in the PlosMedicine). The method uses a two-stage approach to make the regional and global estimates. In Stage 1, we apply a multivariate linear regression model to estimate respiratory mortality in each collaborating country (roughly 30 countries). In Stage II we use the results from Stage I, plus ten country indicators, in a multiple imputation model to estimate the mortality burden in all world countries.

A report for WHO and a scientific publication.
World Health Organization
In this project we work together with
National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
Sage Analytica, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, USA