GLaMOR I: Estimating the global pandemic mortality burden in 2009

Duration: Jul 2011 - Dec 2012

Background
The H1N1 influenza pandemic started in Mexico in March 2009 and spread to North America, and to Europe and across the world later that year.

Aim
This project aims at providing an assessment of the 2009 global pandemic mortality burden.

Study design and methods
We will use a two stage approach to estimate the global total number of deaths.

Stage 1: Poisson Regression Modelling on time series mortality data in each country
The first stage will involve 20-30 countries with “adequate” mortality data. We will estimate the excess mortality based on time series mortality data in each country using Poisson Regression Modelling.

Stage 2: Statistical extrapolation procedures
In the second stage we will use 3 different statistical estimation procedures to extrapolate the data from the 20-30 countries to all countries in the world and thus produce a global estimate of the pandemic mortality burden in 2009.

Result
Scientific publication