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Future healthcare scenarios as a tool for policy-makers: a regional example from the Netherlands.
Ngo, D., Oers, H. van, Bakker, D. de, Westert, G. Future healthcare scenarios as a tool for policy-makers: a regional example from the Netherlands.: , 2011. 112 p. Abstract. In: Abstract Book EHMA Annual Conference 2011: 'Integration in Health and Healthcare', Porto, 22-24 juni 2011.
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Context: Healthcare systems are facing multiple challenges due to several developments that may influence healthcare demand and supply. To maintain a sustainable healthcare system preventive measures need to be taken. This research focuses on the development of regional healthcare demand and supply in Noord-Brabant (population 2.4mln) until 2025 and possible solutions for a more efficient healthcare system. Future healthcare scenarios are an important tool in identifying these possible developments and its consequences for demand and supply. Methods: A literature review and statistical data analysis were conducted to collect data on current regional and national healthcare situation. Furthermore, four possible future healthcare scenarios were developed. A conference was organized to present the preliminary results to a preselected group of key players in Dutch healthcare. Also, the future healthcare scenarios were presented to and further explored by the group. Additional in-depth interviews were held with some participants to gain further insight into existing issues in the healthcare field. Results: In the last decades life expectancy in the Netherlands has increased with more than two years. While these additional life-years are generally spent in good health the increase of the ageing population has led to a rise in multimorbidity. With the continuing rise of the elderly the situation will likely worsen. This will certainly be the case in Noord-Brabant, for its population is older than average. Four future healthcare scenarios were developed based on two uncertainties: extent of supply regulation and general economic situation.
Discussion: Scenarios should be used as a method to think outside the box rather than making predictions regarding certain topics. In this research scenarios for future healthcare were used to identify possible developments and its consequences for demand and supply. The process of scenario development has resulted in useful knowledge transfer between researchers and multiple stakeholders in healthcare, regionally and nationally. This may lead to a better understanding of existing healthcare issues and may enable a fruitful collaboration in developing policies for future healthcare issues.
Discussion: Scenarios should be used as a method to think outside the box rather than making predictions regarding certain topics. In this research scenarios for future healthcare were used to identify possible developments and its consequences for demand and supply. The process of scenario development has resulted in useful knowledge transfer between researchers and multiple stakeholders in healthcare, regionally and nationally. This may lead to a better understanding of existing healthcare issues and may enable a fruitful collaboration in developing policies for future healthcare issues.
Context: Healthcare systems are facing multiple challenges due to several developments that may influence healthcare demand and supply. To maintain a sustainable healthcare system preventive measures need to be taken. This research focuses on the development of regional healthcare demand and supply in Noord-Brabant (population 2.4mln) until 2025 and possible solutions for a more efficient healthcare system. Future healthcare scenarios are an important tool in identifying these possible developments and its consequences for demand and supply. Methods: A literature review and statistical data analysis were conducted to collect data on current regional and national healthcare situation. Furthermore, four possible future healthcare scenarios were developed. A conference was organized to present the preliminary results to a preselected group of key players in Dutch healthcare. Also, the future healthcare scenarios were presented to and further explored by the group. Additional in-depth interviews were held with some participants to gain further insight into existing issues in the healthcare field. Results: In the last decades life expectancy in the Netherlands has increased with more than two years. While these additional life-years are generally spent in good health the increase of the ageing population has led to a rise in multimorbidity. With the continuing rise of the elderly the situation will likely worsen. This will certainly be the case in Noord-Brabant, for its population is older than average. Four future healthcare scenarios were developed based on two uncertainties: extent of supply regulation and general economic situation.
Discussion: Scenarios should be used as a method to think outside the box rather than making predictions regarding certain topics. In this research scenarios for future healthcare were used to identify possible developments and its consequences for demand and supply. The process of scenario development has resulted in useful knowledge transfer between researchers and multiple stakeholders in healthcare, regionally and nationally. This may lead to a better understanding of existing healthcare issues and may enable a fruitful collaboration in developing policies for future healthcare issues.
Discussion: Scenarios should be used as a method to think outside the box rather than making predictions regarding certain topics. In this research scenarios for future healthcare were used to identify possible developments and its consequences for demand and supply. The process of scenario development has resulted in useful knowledge transfer between researchers and multiple stakeholders in healthcare, regionally and nationally. This may lead to a better understanding of existing healthcare issues and may enable a fruitful collaboration in developing policies for future healthcare issues.