Junior onderzoeker Infectieziekten in de Eerste Lijn
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Preparing for RSV Immunisation and Surveillance in Europe: modelled impact of COVID-19 on RSV seasonality in Europe.
Heemskerk, S., Spreeuwenberg, P., Baliatsas, C., Paget, J. Preparing for RSV Immunisation and Surveillance in Europe: modelled impact of COVID-19 on RSV seasonality in Europe.: PROMISE Consortium, 2024. 27 p. WP1 – RSV epidemiology and impact of COVID-19
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Background
During the COVID-19 pandemic, atypical respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation patterns emerged, characterised by the absence or occurrence of RSV outside the typical winter season. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on RSV seasonality.
Methods
The onset, offset, and peak of RSV epidemics from 2018-2022 across 12 European countries were determined using the 3% positivity threshold method (the 3% positivity threshold method defines an epidemic period when the percentage of sentinel and non-sentinel surveillance specimens testing RSV-positive exceed 3%). A multilevel longitudinal logit regression model for proportions was employed to assess the associations between five NPIs (closure of educational institutions, protective mask use, workplace measures, public gathering restrictions, and closure of public spaces) and RSV, utilising RSV surveillance data obtained from the ECDC Surveillance Atlas of Infectious Diseases, two NPI databases (ECDC-JRC and Oxford), and COVID-19 surveillance data obtained from “Our World in Data”.
Results
Before 2020, consistent RSV seasonality patterns were observed across countries, however, the seasonal increase of RSV-positive cases in winter remained absent during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic period. Analyses of the association between single NPIs and RSV yielded contradictory results: The associations differed between the models using either ECDC-JRC or Oxford NPI data not only in magnitude but also in the direction of the coefficients. Public gathering restrictions and the closure of public spaces exhibited significant negative associations with RSV incidence. However, this was only observed when using RSV surveillance data from the whole year and not when only examining weeks with increased RSV activity.
Conclusions
This study emphasises the importance of standardising data collection internationally during pandemics. This exercise also emphasises the need for standardised procedures for infectious disease modelling. The large differences between countries in how each country implemented various NPIs, and how each country coped with existing surveillance of RSV during a period of “exhaustion of public health means”, make it a challenge to understand the RSV infection dynamics during this period. Therefore, caution is advised when drawing conclusions about the relationship between NPIs and RSV.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, atypical respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation patterns emerged, characterised by the absence or occurrence of RSV outside the typical winter season. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on RSV seasonality.
Methods
The onset, offset, and peak of RSV epidemics from 2018-2022 across 12 European countries were determined using the 3% positivity threshold method (the 3% positivity threshold method defines an epidemic period when the percentage of sentinel and non-sentinel surveillance specimens testing RSV-positive exceed 3%). A multilevel longitudinal logit regression model for proportions was employed to assess the associations between five NPIs (closure of educational institutions, protective mask use, workplace measures, public gathering restrictions, and closure of public spaces) and RSV, utilising RSV surveillance data obtained from the ECDC Surveillance Atlas of Infectious Diseases, two NPI databases (ECDC-JRC and Oxford), and COVID-19 surveillance data obtained from “Our World in Data”.
Results
Before 2020, consistent RSV seasonality patterns were observed across countries, however, the seasonal increase of RSV-positive cases in winter remained absent during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic period. Analyses of the association between single NPIs and RSV yielded contradictory results: The associations differed between the models using either ECDC-JRC or Oxford NPI data not only in magnitude but also in the direction of the coefficients. Public gathering restrictions and the closure of public spaces exhibited significant negative associations with RSV incidence. However, this was only observed when using RSV surveillance data from the whole year and not when only examining weeks with increased RSV activity.
Conclusions
This study emphasises the importance of standardising data collection internationally during pandemics. This exercise also emphasises the need for standardised procedures for infectious disease modelling. The large differences between countries in how each country implemented various NPIs, and how each country coped with existing surveillance of RSV during a period of “exhaustion of public health means”, make it a challenge to understand the RSV infection dynamics during this period. Therefore, caution is advised when drawing conclusions about the relationship between NPIs and RSV.
Background
During the COVID-19 pandemic, atypical respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation patterns emerged, characterised by the absence or occurrence of RSV outside the typical winter season. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on RSV seasonality.
Methods
The onset, offset, and peak of RSV epidemics from 2018-2022 across 12 European countries were determined using the 3% positivity threshold method (the 3% positivity threshold method defines an epidemic period when the percentage of sentinel and non-sentinel surveillance specimens testing RSV-positive exceed 3%). A multilevel longitudinal logit regression model for proportions was employed to assess the associations between five NPIs (closure of educational institutions, protective mask use, workplace measures, public gathering restrictions, and closure of public spaces) and RSV, utilising RSV surveillance data obtained from the ECDC Surveillance Atlas of Infectious Diseases, two NPI databases (ECDC-JRC and Oxford), and COVID-19 surveillance data obtained from “Our World in Data”.
Results
Before 2020, consistent RSV seasonality patterns were observed across countries, however, the seasonal increase of RSV-positive cases in winter remained absent during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic period. Analyses of the association between single NPIs and RSV yielded contradictory results: The associations differed between the models using either ECDC-JRC or Oxford NPI data not only in magnitude but also in the direction of the coefficients. Public gathering restrictions and the closure of public spaces exhibited significant negative associations with RSV incidence. However, this was only observed when using RSV surveillance data from the whole year and not when only examining weeks with increased RSV activity.
Conclusions
This study emphasises the importance of standardising data collection internationally during pandemics. This exercise also emphasises the need for standardised procedures for infectious disease modelling. The large differences between countries in how each country implemented various NPIs, and how each country coped with existing surveillance of RSV during a period of “exhaustion of public health means”, make it a challenge to understand the RSV infection dynamics during this period. Therefore, caution is advised when drawing conclusions about the relationship between NPIs and RSV.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, atypical respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation patterns emerged, characterised by the absence or occurrence of RSV outside the typical winter season. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on RSV seasonality.
Methods
The onset, offset, and peak of RSV epidemics from 2018-2022 across 12 European countries were determined using the 3% positivity threshold method (the 3% positivity threshold method defines an epidemic period when the percentage of sentinel and non-sentinel surveillance specimens testing RSV-positive exceed 3%). A multilevel longitudinal logit regression model for proportions was employed to assess the associations between five NPIs (closure of educational institutions, protective mask use, workplace measures, public gathering restrictions, and closure of public spaces) and RSV, utilising RSV surveillance data obtained from the ECDC Surveillance Atlas of Infectious Diseases, two NPI databases (ECDC-JRC and Oxford), and COVID-19 surveillance data obtained from “Our World in Data”.
Results
Before 2020, consistent RSV seasonality patterns were observed across countries, however, the seasonal increase of RSV-positive cases in winter remained absent during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic period. Analyses of the association between single NPIs and RSV yielded contradictory results: The associations differed between the models using either ECDC-JRC or Oxford NPI data not only in magnitude but also in the direction of the coefficients. Public gathering restrictions and the closure of public spaces exhibited significant negative associations with RSV incidence. However, this was only observed when using RSV surveillance data from the whole year and not when only examining weeks with increased RSV activity.
Conclusions
This study emphasises the importance of standardising data collection internationally during pandemics. This exercise also emphasises the need for standardised procedures for infectious disease modelling. The large differences between countries in how each country implemented various NPIs, and how each country coped with existing surveillance of RSV during a period of “exhaustion of public health means”, make it a challenge to understand the RSV infection dynamics during this period. Therefore, caution is advised when drawing conclusions about the relationship between NPIs and RSV.
